I don't know, I think a medical professional could easily tell the different in HCG levels between pregnant or not pregnant. Also, on the phone (so we know they're not lying) we hear her say "your levels are lower then we expect for how far along you are". I really think that since she said "how far along you are" the nurse is saying that the numbers indicate that Ellie is pregnant, but dropping since she's having a miscarriage. If they were at a non-pregnancy low I really think she'd say at the very least 'they indicate it's possible you're not pregnant or it's very early'.
I see what you mean about Ellie thinking she was pregnant, I agree that's a possibility. I do think that the fact that she showed us the pregnancy test really does indicate that she's not TRYING to deceive us. But when you consider the phone call and the ovulation test and the body changes I think it would be a huge coincidence for it to be a fake positive, I mean that's really uncommon and coupled with all the other factors I think it's really unlikely. I agree it's possible the ovulation test could be wrong but I don't really see any reason to think that, they're usually accurate. Or even if it was wrong I think it's more likely that she got pregnant at a later date when she really did ovulate rather then her not being pregnant at all.
As for the weight gain, that's something I still think strongly points towards pregnancy...she wasn't eating THAT much more to make her body change so much so fast, I think all those snacks are normal for her. Ellie is normally so skeletal I really think something else was going on.
But, we'll never know for sure! We can agree to disagree
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Agreed that a medical professional can surely tell... however I may be the only one here who thinks maybe that was the nurses attempt at trying to let her down gently. She could just have meant that based on the date Ellie gave her they would expect HCG levels to be much higher and therefore she's not pregnant.